Sun City West, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

513
FXUS65 KPSR 051135
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
435 AM MST Sun Apr 5 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the nineties
  will be common through the middle of next week as high pressure
  prevails over the region.

- There is a chance of scattered showers and isolated storms,
  especially on Monday morning, across the Arizona high terrain.

- Another weather system is likely to affect the region late next
  week and weekend, leading to increased winds and cooling
  temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...

Current objective analysis shows ridging over Western CONUS with
the core of the ridge centered over the Pacific NW, and a
backdoor front being pushed into southern AZ. This backdoor front
will cause easterly winds to pick up this morning, especially
across south-central and southeastern AZ, where gusts between
15-25 mph will be common, and gusts up to 35 mph possible in the
higher terrain areas. This front will also help PWATs increase to
170-200% of normal in eastern AZ, where the development of a few
showers and isolated storms, mainly the Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains will be possible starting late this afternoon. By the
afternoon winds are expected to relax as ridging will build over
the lower deserts with H5 heights between 580-582 dam today. This
will lead to temperatures in the lower deserts to be in the low
to mid 90s. Winds are expected to pick back up late tonight into
Monday morning with similar speeds across south-central and
southeastern AZ again.

Upper level moisture will linger into Monday which will help
facilitate plenty of cloud coverage that will aid temperatures to
cool to the upper 80s to low 90s. Afterwards going into Tuesday
moderate ridging will continue to be dominate over the region,
with dryer air filling back in causing skies to clear and temperatures
climbing back into the mid to upper 90s across the lower deserts.

&&

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/...
Upper level ridging will continue through most of the workweek
with afternoon highs in the lower deserts generally staying
in the low to mid 90s. By Friday models are pointing towards a
stronger upper-level low progressing into our region from the
eastern Pacific. Unfortunately, at this time a lot of uncertainly
can be seen on cluster analysis in the exact timing and potency
of this system. However, even with the uncertainly, temperatures
will most likely begin to trend back to near normal by Saturday,
with afternoon highs in the mid 80s. Continued monitoring of this
upcoming system will be needed, especially for increasing moisture
and rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1135Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

E/NE continue early this morning with speeds generally around 10
kt or less. Upon daytime heating after sunrise this morning,
around 15-16Z, easterly surface winds will increase up to 10-15
kts, with gusts up to 20-25 kts (20% chance for peak gusts >25
kts). The prospect of slantwise visibility impacts from lofted
dust in the morning is there, but confidence in this occurring is
low. Gustiness will subside by mid afternoon Sunday, with E/SE
wind directions expected to persist through the rest of the
TAF period. The gradient easterly wind will be a touch stronger
tonight and likely will lead to elevated surface winds (up around
20-25 kt) most of the night and Monday morning. FEW to BKN mid
and high clouds will continue to pass over the area.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation weather impacts are expected through the next 24
hours under FEW - BKN high clouds. Winds will favor a W/NW
component through most of the TAF period at KIPL, while favoring
N/NW at KBLH. Wind speeds will mostly stay below 8 kts, with
periods of light variability and calm conditions.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Generally dry weather and above normal temperatures will persist
during the next several days. Afternoon MinRHs will stay near
10-15% in the western districts, however increasing to 20-35%
today and Monday as moisture increases. The increase in moisture
will result in some shower and thunderstorm chances, mainly
confined to northern and far eastern AZ, particularly on Monday.
Easterly winds are expected to pick up this morning and again
Monday morning, particularly across the higher terrain areas of
south- central AZ where peak gusts upwards of 25-35 mph are
possible. Lighter winds briefly return Tuesday and Wednesday
before increasing once again towards the latter portion of next
week with the approach of another weather system.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Ryan
AVIATION...Berislavich/Benedict
FIRE WEATHER...Lojero/Ryan