Sun City West, Arizona 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

061
FXUS65 KPSR 250515
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1015 PM MST Thu Jul 24 2025

.UPDATE...Updated 06z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near normal temperatures will steadily warm slightly above normal
by the beginning of next week, resulting in minor HeatRisk
increasing to a moderate level.

- Very dry conditions will greatly inhibit any rain chances through
the weekend.

- Monsoonal activity increases again across the region with a return
of better moisture by early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...
A pattern more typical for early June has taken shape, with an area
of negative midlevel height anomalies centered along the Central
CA Coast, dry southwesterly flow over much of the Southwest US,
and high pressure displaced further east than usual. Backed up by
current RAP analysis, ensembles advertise PWATs below 40% of
normal for the time of year, generally less than 0.5" across the
CWA. These values should persist as we head into the weekend. With
environmental moisture this sparse, chances for rain, even over
the highest peaks across eastern/southeastern AZ will be
inhibited.

Ensembles advertise the center of negative H5 height anomalies
overall drifting onshore and closer to the region through
Saturday. Expect the proximity of this feature to keep H5 heights
below 590 dam and thus our temperatures in check, near to slightly
below normal, with especially mild morning lows thanks to the dry
air and mostly clear skies. Latest NBM guidance shows lower
desert highs ranging between 100-107F and morning lows generally
in the 70s except in more urban settings (e.g., Central Phoenix.)

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/...
Ensemble guidance for early next week continues to show the
expansion and strengthening of the subtropical high over much of
CONUS, with H5 heights increasing to around 590-595dm over the
southwestern US. With the strengthening of the subtropical high, our
temperatures will also increase. Forecast high temperatures are
in the 103-110 degree range for Sunday and Monday across the lower
deserts. With the increase in temperatures, areas of Moderate
HeatRisk will also become more widespread across the CWA.

As the high pressure system strengthens overhead early next week,
the mid-level flow will also switch from southwesterly to
southeasterly, which will allow for an increase in moisture across
the region. Ensembles show PWAT values going from around 0.5" on
Sunday to around 0.7-0.9" on Monday. This increase in moisture will
be enough to support some shower and storm development across the
higher terrain to the east of Phoenix on Monday. Moisture will
continue to increase across the region next week, with ensembles
showing PWATs increasing to 1.3-1.5" across the area by Thursday.
This further increase in moisture will lead to increasing shower and
storm chances as well. This will allow for shower and storm chances
to move back into portions of the lower deserts of south-central AZ,
including the Phoenix Metro, with shower and storm chances of 10-30%
for Tuesday-Thursday. Overall, the patter looks fairly favorable for
increased shower and storm activity for the middle part of next
week. With these increased thunderstorm chances expect the usual
hazards of gusty winds, from both the thunderstorms themselves and
any outflow boundaries they produce, localized heavy downpours, and
areas of localized blowing dust. With the increased shower and storm
chances, temperatures are forecast to return to near to slightly
below normal for south-central AZ (100-107 degrees) and remain
near to slightly above normal in SE CA and SW AZ (103-110 degrees)
for the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0510Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather issues under mostly clear skies can be
expected throughout the TAF period. The overall wind pattern will
continue to exhibit the familiar diurnal tendencies with speeds
generally aob 10 kts, although some occasional afternoon/early
evening gusts in the mid to upper teens will be possible.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues under mostly clear skies can be expected
throughout the TAF period. At KIPL, winds will generally be out of
the west while at KBLH winds will generally be out of the south
to southwest with periods of light variability Friday morning.
Winds will pick up Friday afternoon/evening with gusts upwards of
20-25 kts, with KIPL potentially seeing temporary gusts near 30
kts during the early evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Very dry conditions with near normal temperatures will continue into
the weekend. Temperatures will warm to slightly above normal by the
end of the weekend/beginning of next week. MinRHs will be in the 5-
10% range through the weekend. On Monday, a slight increase in
moisture will have minRHs increase to 15-25% in the higher terrain
in the eastern district, whereas elsewhere minRHs will generally be
less than 15%. MinRHs will steadily increase to 15-30% across the
area during the middle of next week. With the increase in moisture
next week there will also be increasing shower and storm chances.
With chances relegated to the higher terrain on Monday and spreading
to the lower deserts during the middle of next week. Winds will tend
to follow their typical diurnal tendencies with the usual afternoon
upslope gustiness.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Whittock
LONG TERM...Berislavich
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Berislavich